CIRCLE has long interrogated all of these sources and, while they do not match exactly, they follow the same trends, which makes this an early indicator. CIRCLE’s day-after youth turnout estimate tracks well with the Census Current Population Survey (CPS) dataset-see graph above-and can be calculated immediately. For example, some of the estimates depend on data that are not available for months. There are several sources of voter turnout estimates, all of which have benefits and drawbacks. You can ready more about youth turnout and youth vote share here here. Our survey also found that youth were confident about their generation’s ability to effect change, and that many understood voting was an important way to advance their political views. CIRCLE’s own poll of 18 to 24-year-olds found that 34% said they were “extremely likely” to vote-a similar rate to our estimate today.
#Midterm elections 2018 registration#
From the gun-control movement after the Parkland shooting, to voter registration on par with a presidential year and higher early voting, youth demonstrated newfound levels of engagement and enthusiasm that have historically been unusual in a midterm election. The substantial increase in youth turnout is in many ways the culmination of an election cycle in which young people had an extraordinary impact through their activism, emphasis on voter registration, and-yesterday-overwhelming support for Democratic candidates. That number, the youth share of the vote, matches the 13% share in 2014 and is generally similar to the number in the last six midterm cycles since 1994 indeed, the youth share has remained relatively steady, between 11% and 13%, in all those previous elections. In addition, preliminary national exit poll data indicate that 13% of all votes cast in 2018 House elections came from youth ages 18-29.
The 31% turnout estimate represents millions more young people casting votes in yesterday’s election, compared to who voted in 2014 according to our day-after estimate. We estimate that this is by far the highest level of participation among youth in the past quarter century-the last seven midterm elections during which we’ve been using this same calculation method. In May 2019 we updated our estimate of youth turnout to 28%.ĬIRCLE is estimating today that roughly 31% of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over our estimate in 2014, when our day-after exit poll calculation suggested that 21% of eligible young voters went to the polls. Note: Below you'll find analyses conducted by CIRCLE in the hours immediately following the 2018 midterm elections with the best available data at that time.
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